Black voters shifted towards Trump: According to exit surveys, the Republican candidate’s support among Black voters has nearly doubled since 2020. Where and how? We dissect it.
Kamala Harris had aspired to become the first woman, the first Indian American, and the second African American to reach the White House when she was officially announced as the Democratic nominee for the US presidential election in August.
It was anticipated that Harris would turn around a worrying trend for Democrats and regain the support of Black people who had been leaving the party.
With the help of Barack Obama, the nation’s first Black president, her campaign has since focused on Black voters in battleground areas.
However, as the results of Tuesday’s election began to come in, it became clear that, in contrast to the 2020 election, Trump—not Harris—had increased popularity among Black voters, since the previous president had won the White House.
To what extent, then, did Trump win over Black voters? How did he accomplish that?
How did Trump do with Black voters in the 2024 election?
Black voters shifted towards Trump: For many years, black voters have tended to support the Democratic Party, and this trend has remained consistent overall.
According to an exit survey conducted by The Associated Press, Harris seems to have received 80 percent of the Black vote.
However, that represents a ten-point decline from 2020, when Joe Biden, the incumbent president, received nine out of ten Black votes.
The recipient? According to the exit poll, Trump received 20% of the Black vote this time. In 2020 and 2016, he received 13 and 8 percent of the community’s vote, respectively. This was the largest percentage of Black voters’ support for a Republican since George W. Bush in 2000.
How did Trump perform with Black voters in swing states?
According to exit polls following both elections, Trump’s support grew in this year’s election, as evidenced by a comparison of Black votes for both parties in some of the swing states in 2020 and 2024.
Georgia
Georgia was one of the first battleground states to go Trump’s way and one of the most important swing states in the 2024 election. According to exit surveys, he improved his lead over Biden by 1 percentage point among Georgia’s Black voters from the 2020 race.
2024:
- Democrats: 86 percent
- Republicans: 12 percent
2020:
- Democrats: 88 percent
- Republicans: 11 percent
Michigan
Following the rise in anti-Democrat sentiment following Israel’s war on Gaza, Harris and the Democrats lost two percentage points of the Black vote in this state. Trump, meanwhile, gained two percentage points.
2024:
- Democrats: 90 percent
- Republicans: 9 percent
2020:
- Democrats: 92 percent
- Republicans: 7 percent
North Carolina
With a 5 percentage point flip from the last election, North Carolina witnessed one of the largest swings from Democrats to Republicans among Black voters.
2024:
- Democrats: 87 percent
- Republicans: 12 percent
2020:
- Democrats: 92 percent
- Republicans: 7 percent
Pennsylvania
When Pennsylvania was called for the Republican candidate, Trump’s win was virtually assured, and the numbers increased for the second-time president.
2024:
- Democrats: 89 percent
- Republicans: 10 percent
2020:
- Democrats: 92 percent
- Republicans: 7 percent
Wisconsin
Voters in the state of Wisconsin had poverty, low wages and healthcare among their chief concerns, and Black voters in this state made a dramatic 13 percentage point shift towards Trump.
2024:
- Democrats: 77 percent
- Republicans: 21 percent
2020:
- Democrats: 92 percent
- Republicans: 8 percent
Nevada
The only swing state where Harris gained support from Black voters over 2020 was the state with the greatest unemployment rate in the nation.
2024:
- Democrats: 82 percent
- Republicans: 17 percent
2020:
- Democrats: 80 percent
- Republicans: 18 percent
Was the Black vote shift towards Trump unexpected?
Not at all.
The percentage of Black adults in the US who identify as Democrats fell from 77 percent in 2020 to 66 percent in 2023, according to a Gallup poll.
Why? According to observers, Black voters today, particularly the younger ones, behave somewhat more independently than those in the past.
Black voters have always supported the Democratic Party because of its history with the civil rights movement. Younger Black voters, however, are not as attached to the civil rights history.
According to political scientist Adolphus Belk of Winthrop University in South Carolina, “I believe that a certain generation of Black voters don’t have the direct experience with the civil rights movement or the knowledge of those things because to them that’s not memory – it’s history.” They’re entering without knowing the opportunities, constraints, and historical arcs and twists.
Black voters shifted towards Trump: And those annoyances are evident in the growing number of Black people who are viewing the Republican Party differently overall and who are showing interest in Trump despite his racial baggage.
He added that Black people appeared to be upset that the Democratic Party is not giving them anything in exchange for what they perceive to be consistent, long-term support.
Did the Democratic Party see this coming?
The vice president worked all out to win over Black voters as their pre-election feeling turned against Harris, and she mainly relied on Obama’s backing.
When Biden dropped out of the presidential race and Harris started her trip as the likely Democratic nominee ahead of the party’s national convention in August, Obama and his wife, Michelle Obama, were among the first to announce their support for Harris.
Harris was then joined on the campaign tour by the Obamas. Harris said that her “opportunity agenda for Black men” would increase their chances of success throughout her campaign.
Forgivable small business loans totaling $1 million were part of the plans.
Black voters shifted towards Trump: However, the party seemed to realize that this was not working, and Barack Obama chastised Black men for their apparent lack of support for Harris during a community rally in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, in October.
“I’m talking directly to men, and part of it makes me think that, well, you just don’t feel comfortable with the idea of having a woman as president, and you’re coming up with other alternatives and excuses for that,” he stated.
However, many in the Black community criticized Obama’s comments. Appealing to a group of people is how you try to win their support. In an interview with Al Jazeera, author Ta-Nehisi Coates stated, “You don’t chastise them, humiliate them, and vent your anger at them.”
“Do you believe that someone will see that and decide to vote for Harris now?”
How did Trump increase his popularity among Black voters?
Trump has been attempting to woo disgruntled Black voters away from the Democratic Party, a tactic that is reminiscent of the Democratic campaign in the middle of the 19th century.
Trump has stated that with record-low unemployment, African Americans benefited better economically during his presidency. But according to other analysts, this was just the latest in a decreasing trend that began during the Obama administration.
Black voters shifted towards Trump: At a Black Conservative Federation banquet in Columbia, South Carolina, Trump stated that he thought his four felony charges were helping him gain more Black support because the criminal justice system has historically treated Black people unfairly.
After that, I was indicted a second, third, and fourth time. And a lot of people commented that because Black people have experienced such severe discrimination and hurt, that’s why they like me,” he continued. “They truly thought I was the victim of discrimination.”
Trump’s remarks drew criticism and jeering. However, he was successful in getting well-known African American figures like Lil Wayne, 50 Cent, Kodak Black, and Kanye West to endorse his products.